Crime & Law
Poll Finds More Chicagoans Believe Violent Crime Is Rising, Even as Shootings, Homicide Numbers Remain Flat
A Chicago Police Department vehicle is parked on Clark Street near Daley Plaza on June 15, 2026. (Victor Hilitski / WTTW News)
More Chicagoans believe violent crime has increased in the city, according to a new public opinion poll, even as the numbers of shootings and homicides throughout 2026 are essentially the same as last year, which ended with the fewest recorded killings in 60 years.
Forty-four percent of Chicago residents think violent crime has increased throughout the city, compared with 38% who feel the levels have stayed about the same and 18% who believe violent crime has decreased, according to new polling data from the nonpartisan research organization NORC at the University of Chicago. The polling was conducted as part of the regular Chicago Speaks initiative.
Those findings come as city data shows the number of homicides (234) recorded thus far in 2026 is actually down around 1% compared to the same time last year, while the number of shootings (974) is identical to last year’s pace.
Chicago closed out 2025 with its fewest homicides since 1965.
Despite that, crime levels in Chicago have been a repeated talking point for President Donald Trump, who has called the city a “war zone” and a “hell hole” as his administration unsuccessfully sought to deploy hundreds of National Guard troops to fight crime in the city last year.
The new polling was conducted between June 15-23 and included responses from 1,194 city residents, with a 4.1% margin of error.
According to the findings, perceptions of city crime levels appear “closely tied” to social media exposure, with those who reported having more frequent encounters with crime-related content online being more likely to believe crime is increasing, according to NORC.
About two-thirds of those who said they see “violent crime content” at least once per day said they believe violent crime has gone up, compared to 18% of those who said they see such content less than once per week.
The polling also found views on violent crime citywide differ by age and political affiliation.
Sixty-nine percent of Republicans and 57% of Independents said crime has gone up, compared to just 34% of Democrats.
Half of adults over the age of 45 also said crime is increasing, compared to 39% of adults under 45, according to the poll.
Black and Hispanic residents (57% and 53%, respectively) were also far more likely to say crime has increased compared to White residents (30%).
Those trends were similar when discussing residents’ views on violent crime in their own neighborhood, rather than the city as a whole. Republicans, along with Black and Hispanic residents, again were more likely than Democrat and White residents to say violent crime has increased around them.
The new poll also examined Chicagoans’ feelings on affordability in the city, with two-thirds of residents saying the cost of living in their area is unaffordable.
Those findings were consistent across gender and racial lines.
“Most report they are just getting by or finding it difficult to get by,” NORC said in its findings, “with about a third saying they cannot pay their monthly bills in full.”
WTTW News coverage of policing and police reform is supported by The Joyce Foundation.
