A study published in the National Bureau of Economic Research challenges the narrative that immigrant communities are fueling crime in the United States. The study, which includes 150 years of data, reveals that immigrants have consistently been incarcerated at lower rates than U.S.-born citizens. However, so-called “migrant crime” has become a major talking point this election cycle.

Former President Donald Trump is running on a platform that includes mass deportations to address what he claims is a surge in crime committed by migrants and undocumented immigrants.

“I can say this, we will do large deportations from Springfield, Ohio,” Trump said at a news conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, California. “Large deportations. We’re going to get these people out. We’re bringing them back to Venezuela. … They (Venezuela) emptied their jails, emptied their criminals, emptied the nests.”

Chicago has seen more than 47,000 asylum seekers arrive in the past two years. These individuals, many of whom are fleeing gang violence, economic instability and food insecurity, have borne the brunt of major scrutiny and fabricated stories about them perpetuating violence in their new hometown.

Earlier this month, a story went viral stating that 32 armed Venezuelan migrants took over an apartment complex in Washington Park. The lie was later amplified with the help of Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk, who reposted the hoax on his social media site X.

The claim has since been debunked, but it follows the same fear-mongering tactics that have put other migrant communities, like those in Springfield, Ohio, and Aurora, Colorado, at the center of the national immigration debate.

While there has been an increase in migrant arrests in Chicago since the busing of asylum seekers from Florida and Texas began in August 2022, the vast majority of these run-ins are for non-violent offenses such as traffic violations and theft, according to an analysis by the Chicago Tribune.

“There’s a disconnect between what the data shows and what people think,” said University of California Davis economics professor Santiago Perez, who co-authored the study. “Crimes committed by immigrants get more media attention, and people remember those stories more.”

Lilia Fernandez, a history professor at the University of Illinois Chicago, said that immigrants being targeted in political rhetoric isn’t anything new.

“Targeting immigrants for economic and social problems is the oldest technique in the book,” Fernandez said. “Latin Americans, Africans, Haitians and others from the global south are often portrayed as criminals — much like Irish, Polish, and Russian Jewish immigrants were in the past.”

On whether a Trump reelection and his mass deportation promise are actually a major threat to immigrant populations, Fernandez said it’s typically more of a political tool rather than a real-world solution because of the costliness and impracticability.

“(Deportations) have been used reportedly throughout the 20th century and before that,” Fernandez said. “It’s often done in times of economic downturns. Mexicans, in particular, have been targeted in this way.”

Silvia Diaz, the clinical director of mental health services at Erie Neighborhood House, works closely with asylum seekers and emphasizes that many of the new arrivals did not want to leave their home countries and were forced out.

“They did not choose to go through a whole migration journey,” Diaz said. “A lot of these individuals have disclosed that they’ve slept in the Amazon, they had to go by foot a lot of the path, cross through countries where they’ve been discriminated against. A lot have shared with me experiencing abuse in various borders.”

Diaz said she often hears people pass judgment on the new arrivals, questioning why they’d risk such a dangerous journey.

“Think of yourself as a mother and a father, what would you do?” Diaz said. “When you’re coming from a place where you’re watching your children deteriorate or you’re waiting for someone to come and shoot you, you’re going to do whatever you need.”

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