The former industrial building at 2241 S. Halsted St. that was converted into the city’s largest shelter. (WTTW News)

The Democratic National Convention is set to kick off Monday without any sign of a renewed surge of migrants to Chicago, defying warnings from city officials and threats from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

For more than a year, top aides to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson have been warning that the Republican governor was determined to make good on his threats to cause as much chaos in Chicago as possible while the city is in the national spotlight by sending as many buses carrying migrants to Chicago as possible.

City officials sounded a renewed alarm after Abbott renewed those threats at last month’s Republican National Convention, rebuffing efforts by Immigrant Rights Committee Chair Ald. Andre Vasquez (40th Ward) to scuttle Johnson’s 60-day limit on shelter stays for most migrants.

At the peak of the crisis during the summer of 2023, 2,000 people arrived in Chicago from Texas every week, according to city data.

Deputy Mayor for Immigrant, Migrant and Refugee Rights Beatriz Ponce de León told reporters on July 23 that the crisis could exceed that peak, bringing between 10,000 and 25,000 migrants to Chicago in the weeks leading up to the convention.

Instead, since then, fewer than 1,600 migrants have made their way to Chicago, and no buses have arrived in the Chicago area since June 17, according to city data.

Ponce de León said Friday those projections were always “hypothetical.”

“We were looking at all scenarios and did the work to be prepared for any and all of them,” Ponce de León said.

The city’s migrant shelter population is essentially unchanged since July 23, with fewer than 5,600 people living in 17 facilities as of Friday, according to city data. The city had approximately 5,000 shelter beds available to handle the influx that failed to materialize, with the ability to add approximately another 5,000 shelter beds.

Johnson has repeatedly called Abbott evil for busing to Chicago migrants who crossed the southern border, requested asylum and have permission to remain in the U.S. while their cases are resolved. But there is no evidence Abbott has experienced a change of heart or charted a new policy.

Instead, a new policy implemented by President Joe Biden appears to have reduced the number of migrants crossing the border without permission. That number dropped 29% between May 15 and July 15, according to data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials.

With the threat of a renewed surge timed to coincide with the convention now passed, the crisis that began in August 2022 will enter a new phase that will force Johnson to make another series of difficult decisions during the run-up to the presidential election in November.

Vasquez, who has repeatedly called for the 60-day limit on shelter stays for migrants to be reversed, has said he will renew that push after the convention.

However, it is not clear how many migrant shelters the city plans to operate after the convention, and whether officials will move to reduce or eliminate the beds the city had maintained in the months leading up to the convention.

“We are definitely entering a period where we are looking at the system as a whole and making some decisions about what it looks like moving forward, especially into our next fiscal year,” Ponce de León said Friday.

Those facilities are costly to operate: In June, city officials spent $677,310 every day to care for 5,500 migrants in 15 shelters, according to city officials.

In all, Chicago taxpayers have paid $147.7 million between August 2022 and Aug. 9 to care for the migrants who made their way to Chicago. State and federal grants have covered an additional $312.6 million in costs, according to a city database.

Approximately 70% of the more than 1,900 migrants evicted from city shelters since March had nowhere else to go, and continue to live in city facilities, according to city data.

All migrants evicted from a city shelter can return to the designated “landing zone” for buses from Texas at Polk and Desplaines streets in the West Loop and reapply for shelter.

It is unclear how long officials will maintain that policy.

Ponce de León said city officials are proud of the “compassionate and fiscally responsible” way they have handled the new arrivals.

Nearly 300 people who belong to families with school-age children were forced to leave a city shelter between June 6, when city officials began enforcing the eviction policy after the end of the school year, and July 23. Approximately 250 people immediately returned to a city facility, according to city data.

The first day of school for Chicago Public Schools is Aug. 26. It is unclear whether officials will continue to enforce the 60-day limit on families once the school year begins.

Contact Heather Cherone: @HeatherCherone | (773) 569-1863 | [email protected]